Thursday, August 7, 2008

Catching Wind

With the US National team's last exhibition game against Australia more than two days in the rear view mirror and the opening game against China still three days down the road, it's time for a quick look around the blogoscape.

These landmarks stick out -

1. As David Friedman reported in his Team USA Exhibition Tour Report Card, Dwayne Wade has been mighty impressive lately.
He's shooting .723 FG & and, surprisingly to me, is shooting better from deep (5-7 3 pt. %) than Deron Williams (1-6).
"
2. Meandering through a past blog about Team USA's 2007 evisceration of Argentina, David also mentioned something that I had never known about the genesis of the 1992 Dream Team. In the late 1980s, when FIBA proposed that the US inject professional players into future Olympic competitions, the US evidentally "was the one country that was initially opposed to the idea. The fact is that sending college players to compete against other countries' professionals is pointless; the college players cannot win in these kind of events and it is better for the development of the game for the best to play against the best."

A USA basketball article clued me in that:

"In 1986 - two years before Americans lost in '88 - the rules were nearly changed. FIBA Secretary-General Stankovic introduced the resolution for open play at a FIBA convention, and the vote to allow all professionals to play was 31-27. At the time, Stankovic said 18 or 19 countries abstained from voting, but if only five had changed and voted "yes," the resolution would have passed and the original Dream Team could have debuted in 1988 rather than 1992."


3. In a recent prognostication article, CNN SI's Ian Thomsen writes, unsurprisingly, that Spain is favored for silver. He said one reason for this because the fleet, full-court oriented Spanish squad "lost the European championship final last summer when the Russians slowed the tempo. By trying to push the ball up the court, the Spaniards will be playing to the preferred pace of the Americans."

Then, almost shockingly, he quotes Ettore Messina, the highly respected coach of CSKA Moscow, saying that Spain would be content to settle for silver: "Their goal realistically has to be nothing more than to make the final. I remember they were so happy when the draw put them in the same group with the U.S., meaning they [are likely to] face the U.S. only in the final. I think they are thinking of second place.''


I can understand why Messina said Spain was glad that they are in a situation where they will not (in the elimination games) likely face the US until the finals, but I cannot fathom a team with 6+ NBA-caliber players not considering gold as a realistic goal. If anything, after last year's loss in the Euro Championships in Madrid, I would expect Spain to be more hungry for gold than ever. The possibility of one nation holding the FIBA and Olympic championships in basketball, and the Euro Cup in soccer, as Spain has a chance to do, is unreal.

4 comments:

JohnnieC said...

How did they use to pick the college players back in the day? You think that if we just sent the previous year's NCAA champs that they'd do horribly in the olympics these days?

Evin Demirel said...

Good question, Johnnie.
Complicated answer. Not only were college players eligible to perform in Olympic tournaments of yore, but so were other amateurs - junior colleges, US Armed personnel, AAU members, even YMCA members were all eligible. Every year, the process changed but essentially all-star teams from these various demographics played each other in tournaments to determine which players would go to the Olympics.

More fun can be had here:http://www.usabasketball.com/inside.php?page=history_content&id=2

There is no way that a college team could compete against the best international teams nowadays.

These teams are stacked with five to seven NBA caliber players each. The overall advantages in talent, skill, experience (especially familiarity with the FIBA rules), and differences in weight and height would undoubtedly lead to a rout.

The most talented NCAA champs would have an easier time with African and Asian teams.

JohnnieC said...

Aight, what about just sending last year's NBA champs? Much is made of the all-stars' lack of cohesion, this would be solved by sending folks who have played together for years or at least a whole season. The way it is now, we put all these players from different teams under a coach few if any of them have had before and let them practice together for a few months right? I guess there is a chance that the NBA champs would have a handful of international players on it and they'd need to be replaced to fill-out Team USA. Oh well.

Evin Demirel said...

That's another idea that has been bandied about before. The 07-08 Boston Celtics would be a strong representative b/c of their talent level/experience and lack of international players. But the Spurs or Lakers would present a problem b/c of the prevalence of international players on that squad. How do you determine what players to fill in? That process would entail very slippery reasoning.

Also, other nations do not send their domestic league champions - they conglomerate, like we do. I think that's more in the spirit of the Olympics - to "earn" a spot into play based on your individual achievements rather than riding the coat tails of those playing in front of you. I think the 9-12th men on the Celtics would be much less deserving of a medal (bronze at best) than would the 9-12th men on the current national team, who are more integral to the team's success and will have contributed more.

Another factor to consider is the lack of experience most of the Celtics would have with FIBA rules. Each member of the current national team has previous year(s) of FIBA experience and that familiarity is extremely important to their comfort level once high-level play begins.

One month of crash-course intra-squad scrimmaging to pick up all the new rule nuances simply doesn't cut it to prepare a team for the likes of Spain and Greece.

Finally, I think it is good that a player can do really well in the regular season although lose in the playoffs but still look forward to representing his country. This softens the sting while the player recovers from the season. NBA champs have played LOOOONG seasons by the point they win it all and while a few of them may genuinely desire to play on a national team, there's a good chance a lot of the players wouldn't warm to the idea of their brief summer being cut into by fiat.